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A “W-Shaped” Recession

Last Friday, at the Financial Advisor Webinar Series, economist-turned-money-manager Rob Stein, predicted a "W-shaped" recession.

Forecasts of a W-shaped recession are drawing attention. See the Carlos Lozada commentary in The Washington Post on April 19, FT Columnist John Authers’ on May 17, or economist Nouriel Roubini on July 16.

Stein, who heads Astor Financial LLC, predicted that technology will be among the sectors that gain disproportionately from the coming economic rebound. Stein’s also bullish on China.

Stein, who began his career at the Federal Reserve in 1983, believes The Great Recession of 2008-2009 has combined two recessions in one: a traditional V-shaped recession and a credit-bubble recession. While the US economy is now slowly coming out of the traditional recession and economic growth starting up, a second downturn is likely to follow in the next couple of years because of continuing losses from the credit crisis.

Using a macroeconomic approach, Stein actively manages three styles of broadly diversified ETF portfolios: a long/short balanced fund, growth fund, and low-volatility program.

You can view a reply of Stein's presentation, "Actively Managing An ETF Portfolio." It's free, but you need to register. You can also download his slides.

Next week, CFPs will be able to get continuing education credit on replays of the Financial Advisor Webinar Series at advisorsforadvisors.com.

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